Reasons Why Raila Lost The 2022 Elections
The Kenyan 2022 presidential race was a tight one. But by announcement day, August 15, 2022, citizens realized that the same tune they had been hearing for the past four elections would again fill the air. The honorable Raila Odinga (Baba), leader of the primary opposition party in Kenya, lost again during this 5th bid for the presidency against the current deputy president, Honorable Willian Ruto.
After Hon. Raila Odinga lost the 2017 elections; nobody thought he would bid for the seat again, considering his consistent losing streak. But it became evident a year later, in 2018, when the opposition leader and current president of the nation, Hon. Uhuru Kenyatta put aside their differences and united through the well-known ‘handshake.’
It was a ground-shaking event as the two had had a political feud that lasted generations before, when their fathers were in the game. Kenyans were pleased as the two leaders’ understanding meant peace.
The 2007 post-election violence divided the country, with the Kikuyu and Luo tribes retaining an enmity that would rise with every election.
But with Hon. Raila (the most popular political leader of the Luo tribe) and President Uhuru (the most popular political leader of the Kikuyu tribe) joined hands; it seemed that the handshake was solely focused on peace. Or at least that’s what we thought– we would soon be reminded that politics is all about strategy.
And The Winner Is…
To the delight of many, Hon. Raila Odinga was cleared by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to run for president on June 5, 2022, for the Azimio la Umoja–One Kenya Coalition party.
He would go up against DP Willian Ruto and his deputy Hon. Rigathi Gachagua for Kenya Kwanza political alliance party. They would also run against Roots Party Leader George Wajackoyah with running mate Justina Wamae, plus Agano Party leader Waihiga Mwaure and running mate Ruth Mucheru Mutua.
Any Kenyan could have told you that Raila’s win was in the bag. There had been a public fallout between President Kenyatta and DP Ruto. The president publicly endorsed Hon. Raila for the presidency, and even chairs Azimio la Umoja–One Kenya Coalition party. His influence propelled Hon. Raila’s popularity– the handshake mattered!
And to secure the Kikuyu (and female) vote, the opposition leader appointed Hon. Martha Karua as his running mate. The novelty of Hon. Raila finally being triumphant and the country getting its first female Deputy president took over the nation– ‘Baba na Martha.’
After the elections, Kenyans enjoyed an interesting take on vote counting as the various media houses showed different results. Every station had its own ‘the fifth’ –amusing and worrying.
Then on announcement day, the drama began to unfold. Four IEBC commissioners held a press conference to disagree with the yet-to-be-announced results, staging their ‘opaque nature and giving KOT (Kenyans on Twitter) a new meme phrase.
Later, the head of the IEBC, Wafula Chebukati, announced DP William Ruto as the president in the absence of Hon. Raila and his running mate. The next day, the opposition party leader made a statement rejecting the presidential results and promising to go to court, as expected.
A lot going on here, right? Media and internet posts are going into a craze to explain what could happen in the coming days. But we would rather address why such a strong presidential candidate, backed by the president and popular among the majority of voters, still lost the race.
Why Did He Lose?
Below are the possible reasons that made the Hon. Raila lose the 2022 elections.
The favoritism
There is no denying that there was an air of favoritism towards Hon. Raila’s campaign. It is anyone’s guess why this happened, but there was more media coverage of his campaigns than any of the other presidential candidates.
But unfortunately, it did not work the way the strategy team thought it would. Favoritism, in the eyes of the average Kevo in Kenya, does not sit well. Almost every average worker can tell you how they lost an opportunity at success or money because authorities favored someone over them.
So, this favoritism may have gained him popularity in sight, but the hearts of the voters did not side with him.
The technology/online strategy
The Hon. Raila’s campaigns were primarily focused on traditional media like TV, Radio, and newspapers. It was a smart strategy since these are the outlets that many Kenyans come across daily. But they forgot one thing, the internet.
Kenya is more connected to the internet now than ever. Young or old, most Kenyans are online, and it is so popular that the country has its own hashtag, #KOT on Twitter. The campaign team attempted to catch up with YouTube ads, recorded phone messages, and short videos. But it was too late.
Additionally, voters did not see much of the Azimio’s branded fliers and other printed materials up until the last minute. Quality campaign materials i.e. political brochures, T-shirt branding, billboards, sign boards play a key role in the overall performance of a candidate. Eye catching solid colors in any Flier you see in campaigns is produced courtesy of superior Printers and quality toner cartridges. It is therefore necessary to spend heavily on branding strategies.
The ‘have it in the bag’ attitude
Do you work hard when you know money is on its way? Most of us don’t, and that is, unfortunately, what may have transpired within Hon. Raila’s campaign team.
The presidential backing, the favoritism, and the novelty of the ‘dream team’ may have made the candidate’s campaign team somewhat lazy. They probably did not work as hard since it seemed that a little effort would be enough to secure the victory.
The best way to describe this would be the story of the hare and the tortoise who raced against each other. The tortoise emerged victorious because the hare was sure he would win. It is an unfortunate lesson for future presidential campaign teams.
The presidential effect
You would think that receiving backing from the current president would be enough to propel the candidate to victory, but it may have done the opposite.
A quick search through social media will teach you that President Kenyatta’s current approval ratings are not as high as before due to the rising cost of living and inflation, characterized by a 100% rise in the cost of the country’s staple food, maize flour. Kenyans are struggling to make ends meet and put food on the table– they desperately wanted a change.
Unfortunately, his approval rates may have reflected poorly on Hon. Raila as a candidate. Voters did not want a continuation of the current rule, so their votes would be reserved for other candidates. Once again, the ‘sure and popular’ strategy worked against the campaign strategists.
The wrong deputy
It took 49 elections for Vice President Kamala Harris to make history as the first female VP of the United States. Kenya has had five since the introduction of multiparty politics in 1991. Though we don’t want to admit it, it may take time before we have a female DP or president.
Obviously, Hon. Karua was not a wrong choice, but it was a gamble in a country where men dominate political leadership.
There is no data revealing the gender ratio of voters. Similarly, no studies have openly suggested that there is discrimination in attitude among voters toward female aspirants. So, we can only say that perhaps this was not the time.
Still, progress has been made in accepting female candidates in various seats. For example, all major leadership seats in Nakuru County (including gubernatorial) were won by women.
Similarly, every country has a Women’s Representative Seat, where elected females serve in the National Assembly. Additionally, three of the four 2022 presidential candidates selected women as their running mates. Whether for strategy or not, we call it progress!
So, while we are not there yet, this progress is impressive and instills hopes. But for now, some believe Hon. Raila would have stood a better chance with his previous running mate Hon. Kalonzo Musyoka by his side.
The religious statements
Speaking to the country’s Muslim community during his campaign, Raila Odinga expressed his desire to end the elevation of Christianity above all other religions in Kenya. In short, he wanted all regions to have equal rights under his government.
Unfortunately, many people took the statement wrongly, interpreting it as his desire to ‘end Christianty’ in Kenya– not by the Christian church leaders but by the voters.
Christians dominate Kenya, so this statement was not received well. Hon. Odinga received backing from other religions and even atheists, which may have angered the Christian community more. It was a wise affirmation from the candidate but not one the majority of voters were ready to hear.
The missed debate
And lastly, the missed debate did not look good on Hon. Raila’s campaign. His deputy attended hers and had a stimulating session against other DPs, but unfortunately, Hon. Raila withdrew from the debate well before the date.
The concept of ‘showing up’ for the people seemed to have gotten into the voters’ minds, which may have been a contributing factor to why the candidate lost.
But with every loss comes the opportunity to learn, especially for campaign strategists and leaders. We hope to see even more creative and thought-out strategies from campaign teams in future elections.
